%1

About 750,000 renter households will likely lose their homes this year after the Supreme Court blocked the federal eviction moratorium, according to Goldman Sachs economists, Politico reported. Analysts at the investment bank estimate that tenants owe between $12 billion and $17 billion to landlords as COVID-19 cases surge, with about 2.5 million to 3.5 million households behind on rent. The findings that Goldman released late Sunday mark one of the first comprehensive estimates of what could happen in the absence of the eviction moratorium, which was stopped as state and local governments continued to experience bottlenecks in the delivery of $46.5 billion in federal rental assistance. Given the slow pace of rental aid disbursement, Goldman's analysts expect that between 1 million and 2 million households will remain without support and at risk of eviction when the remaining state and local eviction bans expire at the end of September. The economists based their findings on rent delinquency data from real estate companies, the National Multifamily Housing Council and the U.S. Census Bureau.

States that ended enhanced federal unemployment benefits early have so far seen about the same job growth as states that continued offering the pandemic-related extra aid, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis and economists. Several rounds of federal pandemic aid boosted the amount of unemployment payments, most recently by $300 a week, and extended them for as long as 18 months. The extra benefits are set to expire nationwide next week. But 25 states ended the financial enhancement over the summer, and most of them also moved to end other pandemic-specific unemployment programs such as benefits for gig and self-employed workers. Nonfarm payrolls rose 1.33% in July from April in the 25 states that ended the benefits and 1.37% in the other 25 states and the District of Columbia, the Journal analysis of Labor Department data showed. The payroll figures are taken from a government survey of employers. The analysis compared July totals with April, before governors in May started announcing plans to end or reduce the benefits during the summer. Economists who have conducted their own analyses of the government data say the rates of job growth in states that ended and states that maintained the benefits are, from a statistical perspective, about the same. “If the question is, ‘Is UI the key thing that’s holding back the labor market recovery?’ The answer is no, definitely not, based on the available data,” said Peter Ganong, a University of Chicago economist, referring to unemployment insurance. Economists caution against concluding from these results that expiring benefits had no effect on employment. First, they say it might be too early to detect such an effect. Second, offsetting effects from state reopenings and virus-related restrictions by local governments could be masking the impact of the expiring benefits.

The U.S. Treasury said yesterday that the coronavirus pandemic will cause the main U.S. Social Security trust fund reserves to be depleted in 2033, a year sooner than an estimate made a year ago, as a steep drop in employment shrank revenues, Reuters reported. The Treasury said the Old Age and Survivors Trust Fund would be able to pay 76% of scheduled benefits after 2033 from continuing payroll tax revenues. The Medicare Hospital Insurance Fund reserves are expected to be depleted in 2026, the same as last year's estimate, Treasury said.

The IRS's criminal investigation division said this week that the agency received a record number of reports about stimulus check scams in June and July, The Hill reported. "Even though taxpayers have received multiple rounds of Economic Impact Payments, we saw phishing scams surge this summer," Jim Lee, chief of the criminal investigation division, said in a news release. "The number of reported scam attempts reached levels we haven't seen in more than a decade," Lee continued. "More than ever, it is important for taxpayers to continue to protect their personal information and not fall victim to these scams." Congress has authorized three rounds of stimulus checks since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, with the most recent established by the relief law President Biden signed in March. Scammers have sought to take advantage of the aid payments since they began, seeking to try to trick taxpayers into providing their financial information. The IRS said that recent scams include text messages directing people to click on links to provide their information to get stimulus payments, and phishing emails that claim that recipients are eligible for stimulus payments of specific amounts.

The clock is now ticking for millions of Americans who are set to face a series of stinging financial hardships in a matter of days, with the loss of federal protections against eviction and looming cuts to their weekly unemployment checks, the Washington Post reported. The two developments arrive at a moment of great tension in Washington, where the White House and Congress have grappled over the state of the country’s pandemic aid — and confronted their limited ability to authorize more of it — even as the economy shows potential signs of strain in the face of a resurgent coronavirus. The first blow arrived Friday, as landlords now can more easily begin removing tenants who have fallen behind on their monthly payments. The potential wave of evictions comes after the Supreme Court found the Biden administration’s recent eviction moratorium to be unconstitutional, leaving the White House powerless to issue its own new directive protecting as many as 6.4 million households that are not current on their rents, according to federal survey data. Many Americans also have struggled to obtain federal rental aid from state and local programs that were allocated tens of billions of dollars in past stimulus packages. Some of those same families could face additional financial peril as enhanced unemployment insurance benefits are set to lapse. Congress repeatedly has extended these weekly checks, but President Biden and some of his congressional allies have not sought to renew them ahead of their planned expiration Sept. 6. That could threaten 7.5 million people with the loss of much-needed income, according to a recent estimate from the Century Foundation. Read more. 

In related news, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is throwing support behind legislation aiming to expedite federal rental aid to tenants and landlords, The Hill reported. Pelosi yesterday lauded the efforts by House Financial Services Committee Chairwoman Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) in seeking to reform the nationwide emergency rental assistance program, as state and local governments have been slow to distribute federal aid amid a housing crisis that has worsened amid the pandemic. Pelosi said that Waters was working on building a "consensus" behind the rental aid bill, which like many Democratic priorities will require compromise to overcome likely Republican resistance. In a Dear Colleague letter last week, Waters said the legislation she is working on — and plans to present for mark up on Sept. 13 — would require grantees “to accept the self-attestation of a tenant and to provide assistance directly to tenants in certain circumstances.” Waters said that the forthcoming bill would also allow landlords to “directly apply for back rent after providing notice to their tenants that they intend to apply” and instruct the Treasury Department and “grantees to conduct additional outreach to prospective tenants and landlords,” while also providing the Treasury with an additional $25 million to do so. Read more.

Oilfield services provider Basic Energy Services is warning employees that nearly 500 jobs could be eliminated in Texas, according to a filing with the state's workforce commission, as the company works through chapter 11 restructuring that includes asset sales, Reuters reported. The job cuts are focused throughout Texas, with 135 positions eliminated in Howard County in West Texas and 120 in Tarrant County, where its headquarters are located, according to the filing. The Fort Worth, Texas-based company this month filed for bankruptcy and said it had entered into asset purchase agreements with rivals Axis Energy Services Holding Inc., Berry Corp. and Select Energy Services Inc. If those asset sales are not completed, or if the acquiring company does not offer current Basic employees jobs following the close of the sales, the positions will be eliminated, Basic said in the filing. In a statement earlier this month, CEO Keith Schilling noted that the company faced "extraordinary challenges as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic." He added, in the earlier statement: “We believe the asset purchase agreements will enable us to maximize the value of our businesses and create the best path forward for our customers, partners, employees and the communities we serve.”

U.S. groups representing transit systems and city leaders yesterday joined unions and environmental groups in calling on Congress to back at least $10 billion in additional public transit spending along with new funding for high-speed rail, Reuters reported. The American Public Transportation Association, U.S. Conference of Mayors, International Brotherhood of Teamsters, the Sierra Club, and more than 40 other groups called for the funding in a proposed $3.5 trillion spending bill Congress plans to take up next month. Last month, the U.S. Senate passed a $1 trillion infrastructure package that included $39 billion for public transit. A bipartisan Senate White House framework deal had included $49 billion for transit. Transit ridership has been hit hard during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since early 2020, Congress has approved $69.5 billion in emergency assistance, including $30.5 billion in March. U.S. passenger railroad Amtrak, which received about $2 billion from Congress in the year before the coronavirus pandemic, has been awarded $3.7 billion in emergency funding since March 2020. Nationally, transit ridership remains about 55% of pre-pandemic levels as many people continue to work at home and some riders are opting to use other modes of transportation.