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Washington Gridlock and a Debt Ceiling Showdown Are Weighing on the Market

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Strategists said the renewed sell-off in U.S. markets is in part thanks to partisan gridlock in Congress over the debt ceiling and government shutdown, CNBC reported. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said that the House will this week pass a government funding bill and a debt ceiling suspension. The bigger hurdle is likely the Senate, where lawmakers will need to muster 60 votes to pass such a bill that isn’t tied to the separate reconciliation legislation. The U.S. stock market is on track to post its worst day in months. And U.S. politics are in part to blame. As the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 614 points on Monday  —  its worst day since July  — and the S&P 500 shedding 1.7%, strategists say gridlock on Capitol Hill is starting to send shutters through the market. The S&P 500 on Monday notched its worst session since May. Dan Clinton, head of policy research at Strategas Research Partners, wrote that Wall Street is increasingly convinced lawmakers won’t address the debt ceiling anytime soon. “Much of this is short-term risk and headline risk, but the framework of Washington policy is shifting to more risk after 18 months of unlimited fiscal and monetary policy,” he wrote. “Consensus now believes that the debt ceiling will be raised in the second half of October, meaning a last-minute move, and another month of talk of debt ceiling breaches and prioritization of government spending if the debt ceiling is not lifted.” If Congress fails to suspend or raise the borrowing limit before the so-called drop-dead date, the U.S. government will default for the first time. The Treasury Department doesn’t have a precise “drop-dead” date right now, but estimates that it’s likely some point in October. House Democrats plan to hold a vote this week on a piece of legislation that would suspend the limit and fund the government for a matter of months beyond the close of the fiscal year when it ends Sept. 30.

Democrats Confront 'Rubik's Cube on Steroids'

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Democrats are facing tough choices as they grapple with how to make good on their promise to deliver a sweeping social spending bill crucial to President Biden’s agenda, The Hill reported. The high-profile balancing act is testing Democrats’ razor-thin majorities and putting a spotlight on long-dormant divisions. “This is a little bit like a Rubik's cube on steroids…. It's complicated,” said Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) about the state of play. Where Democrats land on the top-line is a decision that will affect everything else in the bill, forcing lawmakers to either scale back their ideas or drop some entirely. Progressives, including Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), argue the bill must stand at $3.5 trillion, which they view as a compromise from their initial $6 trillion goal. Democrats are also debating how much to focus on Medicare, versus boosting Medicaid and shoring up the Affordable Care Act. The House bill creates a new federal health insurance program to provide Medicaid coverage in the 12 states that didn’t expand it under former President Obama’s health care law. Senate Democrats haven’t yet decided whether to take the House approach amid pushback within the caucus about potentially rewarding states that didn't expand Medicaid earlier. A rebellion from three House Democrats against a prescription drug plan is foreshadowing bigger headaches awaiting Biden and Democratic leadership on the key provision. Democratic leaders are vowing that the final bill will allow the government to negotiate with drug companies to lower the prices for prescription medications. The plan is crucial because the savings expected to be generated could help cover the costs of other pieces of the spending bill’s healthcare provisions. The House Energy and Commerce Committee included a Clean Electricity Payment Program, which incentivizes transitioning to clean energy, in its portion of the spending bill and Democratic senators who support the policy have been working behind the scenes to ensure it gets into their version of the bill.
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Ocasio-Cortez Prepares Bill to Extend Unemployment Benefits

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Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) said she would introduce a bill to reinstate federal unemployment benefits programs that expired last week, despite a lack of appetite to do so among many of congressional Democrats, Bloomberg News reported. “I’ve been very disappointed on both sides of the aisle that we’ve just simply allowed pandemic unemployment assistance to completely lapse when we are clearly not fully recovered from the cost effects of the pandemic,” the New York Democrat said during a virtual town hall on Tuesday evening. Millions of Americans saw their federal benefits end on Sept. 6. Three programs expired that day, one that allotted an extra $300 in weekly unemployment assistance, another that provided benefits to workers who otherwise would not qualify and a third that gave aid to those who remain unemployed but have run out of state benefits. Officials in 26 states previously opted out of the unemployment benefits program before the expiration. Advocates for withdrawal argued it would encourage unemployed Americans to return to the workforce. Democrats debated whether to extend the benefits, but ultimately opted not to do so. House Ways and Means Chair Richard Neal, a Massachusetts Democrat, said President Joe Biden’s position was to “hold off” until there was more evidence.

Democrats' Tax Plan Would Cut Bills for Most Americans -Congressional Estimate

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U.S. tax code changes sought by Democrats in the House of Representatives to help fund $3.5 trillion in domestic investments would cut annual tax bills for Americans earning less than $200,000 a year through 2025, a congressional estimate showed yesterday, Reuters reported. The bipartisan Joint Committee on Taxation estimated that expanded tax credits for children and earned income would mean people in lower-income brackets would pay far less in taxes in 2023 under the Democratic plan, which is being debated this week in the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee. At the other end of the income scale, tax collections from those earning over $200,000 would rise slightly in 2023, escalating to a 10.6% increase for people earning $1 million and more, the committee said. By 2027, after an expanded Child Tax Credit expires, those earning between $30,000 and $200,000 would start to see slightly higher tax bills, according to the estimate. The joint committee, which estimates tax revenue and credit provisions of legislation, estimated that tax increase proposals now under debate in the House Ways and Means Committee would directly raise some $2.07 trillion over 10 years. The plan would raise the top individual income tax rate to its pre-2017 level of 39.6%, from 37% currently, on taxable income above $400,000 with a 3% surcharge on income above $5 million.

House Bill Raises Chance for Global Pact to Curb Corporate Tax Havens

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The prospect of the largest overhaul to the global tax system in a century took a step forward this week as top Democrats introduced a plan to rewrite tax rules for multinational companies in a way that would allow the United States to join the rest of the world in an effort to crack down on tax havens, the New York Times reported. Finance ministers from around the world have been working for months to complete a plan to end what they describe as a race to the bottom on corporate taxation before an October deadline. More than 130 countries have agreed to adopt a global minimum tax of at least 15 percent and are discussing a change in how taxing rights are allocated so that large businesses, including technology giants like Amazon and Facebook, pay taxes in countries where their goods or services are sold, even if they have no physical presence there. House Democrats, as part of their plan to raise as much as $2.9 trillion to finance President Biden’s social safety net package, proposed raising the tax rate on companies’ overseas earnings to 16.6 percent from 10.5 percent and calculating the tax on a country-by-country basis. The plan would meet the primary commitments of the global agreement that is being negotiated through the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Democrats Release Details of Proposed Tax Increase

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House Democrats spelled out their proposed tax increases on Monday, pushing higher rates on corporations, investors and high-income business owners as they try to piece together enough votes for legislation to expand the social safety net and combat climate change, the Wall Street Journal reported. The plan would increase the top corporate tax rate to 26.5% from 21%, impose a 3-percentage-point surtax on people making over $5 million and raise capital-gains taxes — but without the changes to taxation at death sought by the Biden administration. The tax increase details were the last major missing piece in the Democratic agenda, and their release will accelerate lawmakers’ negotiations over which new spending to give priority to and which tax increases they find acceptable. Democrats have few votes to spare in the House and none in the Senate, and moderate Democrats, such as Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.), have called for a narrower proposal with smaller tax hikes than the ones outlined Monday. Republicans are expected to mount unanimous opposition to the proposal, which would reverse many of the GOP tax cuts from 2017. In several areas, the committee proposed tax increases that weren’t as far-reaching as those the Biden administration has sought. It didn’t include the administration’s proposed curbs on oil-and-gas companies’ tax breaks or a provision opposed by banks that would have required annual reporting on account flows to the Internal Revenue Service. The House plan doesn’t change the income-tax rules that allow unrealized capital gains to go untaxed at death. Rural Democrats had opposed that administration capital-gains plan, and its chances of becoming law are looking slimmer.

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H.R. 4483, the "Veterans and Servicemember Consumer Protection Act of 2021"

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To establish a coordinator within the Federal Trade Commission to prevent fraud and scams targeting or adversely affecting military veterans and servicemembers, and for other purposes.

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Committee Hearing to Examine Reforms to Expedite Emergency Rental Assistance

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The House Financial Services Committee will be holding a hearing at noon EDT today titled "Protecting Renters During the Pandemic: Reviewing Reforms to Expedite Emergency Rental Assistance." Committee members and witnesses will testify on H.R. 5196, the "Expediting Assistance to Renters and Landlords Act of 2021," and H.R. 3913, the "Renter Protection Act of 2021." For more information, including the full witness list and a link to the live webcast of the hearing, please click here.

House Financial Services Committee Hearing on Friday to Examine Reforms to Expedite Emergency Rental Assistance

Submitted by jhartgen@abi.org on

The House Financial Services Committee will be holding a hearing at noon EDT on Friday titled "Protecting Renters During the Pandemic: Reviewing Reforms to Expedite Emergency Rental Assistance." Committee members and witnesses will testify on H.R. 5196, the "Expediting Assistance to Renters and Landlords Act of 2021," and H.R. 3913, the "Renter Protection Act of 2021." For more information, including the full witness list and a link to the live webcast of the hearing, please click here.