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Corporate Bonds Poised for 2023 Bounce Amid Recession Fears

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Investors found few places to hide from last year’s demolition derby, which hit corporate bonds harder than it did stocks on a global basis. But if Wall Street’s credit managers and prognosticators are right, 2023 will be the year that corporate bonds boom, Bloomberg Businessweek reported. Despite a late-year rally, the value of corporate debt declined worldwide in 2022 by $2.6 trillion, or nearly 17%, according to Bloomberg data. Blue-chip corporate debt had the worst year on record after a similar fall. By comparison, stocks fell 13.7%. One reason bonds are poised for a rebound is that debt is looking more attractive than equity. The 2022 swoon means investors can buy bonds at big discounts to last year’s values, with the average low-risk corporate bond priced at about 90 cents on the dollar. Less than two years ago, they traded at 110 cents on the dollar. As the economy weakens, companies with high credit ratings will use spare cash to reduce their debt rather than buy back stock, Bank of America Corp. strategists say, which is a positive for holders of those bonds. The prospect of an economic slump, which means lower corporate profits, dims the outlook for stocks. And if recession pushes riskier companies into bankruptcy, shareholders could be wiped out, while bondholders typically recover at least part of their investment. All these possibilities have Swiss wealth manager UBS Group AG predicting a “once-in-a-decade opportunity” in credit. Bank of America strategists are forecasting a total return — mainly price appreciation plus interest — of 9% from high-grade U.S. company debt this year.

U.S. Supreme Court Rejects Investor Suits over Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac

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The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday declined to again hear a multi-billion dollar case pursued by shareholders of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac arising from the federal government's takeover of the mortgage finance firms during the 2008 financial crisis, Reuters reported. The justices turned away an appeal by the investors of a lower court's ruling against their challenge to a 2012 agreement that resulted in hundreds of billions of dollars being redirected from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the U.S. Treasury. The shareholders had argued that this arrangement unlawfully deprived them of dividends without compensation. The private investors pursuing the appeal at the Supreme Court include Bruce Berkowitz's Fairholme Funds and funds managed by New York-based Owl Creek Asset Management.

FTX Customers Sent Money to a Fake Electronics Retailer with a Website Full of Misspelled Words that Was Key to Funding SBF's Alameda, Report Says

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Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX had customers wire money to North Dimension, a mysterious company with a fake electronics retail website, NBC News reported. Money sent to North Dimension would end up funding Alameda Research's trading activity, the SEC alleged. The North Dimension website has been deactivated, but had misspelled words and claimed to sell laptops and phones. In the sprawling drama of Sam Bankman-Fried's fallen crypto empire, the obscure, low-profile North Dimension played a key role in putting FTX customer funds into the hands of affiliate Alameda Research and SBF's other ventures. And according to NBC News, North Dimension operated a fake online electronics retail shop, which has now been disabled and archived. The website did not disclose any connection to Bankman-Fried or his companies. The SEC complaint against ex-Alameda CEO Caroline Ellison and FTX cofounder Gary Wang — who have admitted to wrongdoing — alleges that FTX told clients to wire funds to North Dimension if they wanted to trade on the crypto exchange. But those were then used to fund Alameda's trading activities. "Bankman-Fried had directed FTX to have customers send funds to North Dimension in an effort to hide the fact that the funds were being sent to an account controlled by Alameda," the SEC said in the complaint. FTX filed for bankruptcy last month as reports surfaced that billions in customer funds were sent to Alameda.

More Companies Backed by Private-Equity Firms Filed for Bankruptcy in the U.S. in 2022 Compared to Previous Year

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More companies backed by private-equity firms filed for bankruptcy in the U.S. in 2022 compared to the previous year, but the total number of restructurings remained relatively low, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, Marketwatch reported. The tally for private-equity portfolio companies filing for bankruptcy increased to 49 in 2022 from 42 in 2021, according to data released Tuesday by S&P Global Market Intelligence. The share of private equity-backed companies to go bankrupt compared to the total number of bankruptcies increased to 6.6% of total filings in the U.S. in 2022, from 3.5% of the total in 2021. In 2020, 123 private equity-backed companies filed bankruptcy proceedings, compared to 69 in 2019 and 53 in 2018. Among the 49 private equity portfolio companies that went bankrupt in 2022, the consumer sector accounted for 15 bankruptcies as the most impacted subsector, followed by 11 deals from the health care sector.

Analysis: Wall Street’s Big Banks Score $1 Trillion of Profit in a Decade

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Malick Diop felt something shifting on Wall Street. He’d joined Morgan Stanley in the grim days of 2009, when big banks were trying to pay back taxpayer bailouts and deflect public fury. But four years later, the ire was fading and ambition was the order of the day, according to a Bloomberg analysis. “It really felt like, for the first time, the job and the career weren’t defined by the context of the financial crisis,” Diop said. “We are past this now. And now it’s time for us to do new deals.” In the years that followed, his rise to managing director traced a new boom. He helped orchestrate a multibillion-dollar deal with SoftBank Group, whose breakneck investments defined an era, then closed a huge SPAC merger at the height of that rush. Diop didn’t know it, but he was playing a small role in something almost unfathomably lucrative: The first trillion-dollar decade for the six giants of U.S. banking. That’s not $1 trillion of total revenue; it’s pure profit. Such a haul didn’t seem possible before the decade began, when Wall Street was the target of a global protest movement and politicians at both ends of the spectrum were seething over bailouts or aiming to break up too-big-to-fail lenders. They swelled instead, outpacing corporate America so handily that JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp. and even hobbled Wells Fargo & Co. are on track to make more profit over those 10 years than all but a few publicly traded companies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Citigroup, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley aren't far behind. Together, the six are poised to make even more next year.

Shale Oil Powerhouse Sues Its Own Investors

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One of the biggest landowners in Texas oil country doubled returns to investors in 2022, yet it’s starting the new year by suing some of them as a dispute over the future direction of the company spills into a Delaware court, rigzone.com reported. Texas Pacific Land Corp., a land bank created out of a 19th century railroad bankruptcy, shelved plans to issue new stock last month after shareholders balked at the implicit dilution of their holdings and the prospect of executives inexperienced in dealmaking looking for acquisitions. Texas Pacific management has been vague about what it intends to do with the new shares but has taken its biggest holders to court so it can push through the issuance in February. That puts a company in the odd position of suing investors — including entities run by two of its own directors — who’ve seen the stock swell more than 4,000% in the past decade and dividends almost triple in the past year to $32 a share. “Going on an acquisition spree funded with the equity of TPL is something that has never happened in the history of the trust going back to when it was formed in the 1880s,” said Chadd Garcia, portfolio manager with Schwartz Investment Counsel, a top-10 Texas Pacific shareholder. As a result of the dispute, the company “has the most disliked board and management.” Texas Pacific’s unusual business model revolves around charging oil explorers access fees to its land, selling them raw materials needed to drill wells, and taking a cut of the proceeds from crude and natural gas production.
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Crypto Bankruptcies Chip Away at Customers’ Anonymity

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The collapse of several cryptocurrency platforms this year is testing the industry’s promise of user privacy as bankruptcy courts weigh if millions of individual customers’ identities should be revealed to the public, the Wall Street Journal reported. Hundreds of thousands of customers of Celsius Network LLC have already lost their anonymity because of its chapter 11 filing after a court ruling in September forced it to disclose its account holders’ names and coin balances. A different bankruptcy court is expected to consider next month if failed crypto exchange FTX can seal information on its customers’ identities and contact information from its publicly-available filings. Government lawyers and media organizations are opposing FTX’s efforts to seal its customers’ information, saying it hasn’t provided enough evidence to justify curtailing the public’s right of access to judicial records. “One of the biggest selling points of crypto is the anonymity,” but the notion becomes an issue in bankruptcy courts that require transparency, said Joanne Gelfand, a bankruptcy lawyer with Akerman LLP. “Many people believe that the anonymity only protects wrongdoers, that the anonymity enables thieves and fraudsters to transfer money and not be accountable,” she said. “Other people look at it as a personal individual right-to-privacy issue.” Lawyers representing crypto firms have urged courts to err on the side of redacting information, saying that disclosure will only reduce whatever value the businesses have left and harm customers who are already facing financial losses. The turmoil in cryptocurrency markets this year has already hurt crypto’s credibility with the investing public as plunging asset prices blew holes in the balance sheets of lenders, exchanges and hedge funds. The resulting bankruptcies blocked millions of individuals and institutions worldwide from accessing their crypto and exposed how some platforms weren’t as careful with customer funds as they let on.

Financial Firm Beneficient Pushed Boundaries Before Bond Program’s Collapse

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Beneficient Co. Group LP told investors it was increasing revenue by making loans backed by alternative assets such as stakes in private-equity and venture-capital funds, WSJ Pro Bankruptcy reported. What those investors didn’t know at the time was that Beneficient was making those loans to its own subsidiaries, then counting the interest and fees it got back as revenue. The Securities and Exchange Commission determined last year that the firm’s accounting method was incorrect. The method made it appear that Beneficient was generating revenue growth as a lending business even while its underlying portfolio of alternative assets was actually incurring losses. Beneficient’s parent company at the time, another alternative asset company called GWG Holdings Inc., sold more than $500 million in bonds to investors after filing the incorrect financial statements. Even after GWG and Beneficient straightened out their books, the bond-selling network that GWG needed to stay afloat was effectively frozen, and the company filed for bankruptcy in April facing a federal securities investigation and owing $1.3 billion to thousands of individual investors. Those investors and GWG’s newly appointed managers have also been investigating what happened before the collapse, and how the company came to be used as a capital-raising vehicle for Beneficient, a financial-services firm led by Dallas-based entrepreneur Brad Heppner.
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Analysis: The Junk Bond Reckoning Is Coming in 2023

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Ever so subtly, the high interest rates of the past year have started to separate the viable businesses from the ones sustained by cheap money. Expect 2023 to kick that process into high gear, the Washington Post reported. Interest rates started surging in late 2021 as the Federal Reserve began to acknowledge that inflation wasn’t “transitory,” but relatively few companies have had to deal with the consequences. Many of them met their near-term borrowing needs during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, when rates were unusually low. Defaults and bankruptcies have begun to inch up since then, but only slowly and from extraordinarily low levels. So far, prominent blowups have been few and far between. Those episodes were idiosyncratic and, by total dollar amounts, still a far cry from the fallout of a typical recession. But corporate America’s reckoning with its addiction to cheap debt is coming — and possibly as soon as next year, according to the analysis. While high-yield bond maturities still look manageable for the next 12 months, the wall of expiring debt looks much more daunting in 2024. Companies will have to start refinancing well in advance of that, and they’re likely to find that the cost has risen too high for otherwise flimsy business models to withstand. At today’s rates, all-in yields on high-yield debt sit around 8.67% at the time of writing, far above the 2017-2021 average, according to Bloomberg data. Much will depend on what transpires in the economy next year — and when. A Dec. 12-16 Bloomberg survey of economists puts the probability of a 2023 recession at 70%, but opinions vary widely in terms of when such a downturn would begin.