Analysis: Amid Decreased Spending, American Households Trim Debt Loads
With few avenues for spending and big purchases on hold, many Americans are saving more and paying off debts, helped by loan deferrals and relief aid, according to a New York Times analysis. Forced into lockdown mode by the coronavirus, people put big purchases on hold and scaled back their spending. Around the same time, mortgage lenders, student loan collectors and other creditors offered struggling borrowers a break on payments. Since April, consumer savings have increased, credit scores have surged to a record high and household debt has dropped. The billions of dollars that banks set aside at the start of the crisis to cover anticipated losses on loans to customers have been largely untouched. “Everything was upside down,” said John Hecht, an analyst at the investment bank Jefferies. Usually, in times of distress and unemployment, more people find themselves with deteriorating credit and are forced to seek high-interest, or subprime, loans, Hecht said, but not this year. The pain may still be coming. Banks and other consumer lenders are bracing for financial stress next year, as millions of people remain out of work and the labor market’s rebound shows signs of stalling. A third surge of coronavirus cases has taken hold in the U.S., and lawmakers in Washington, D.C. are mired in fights about the terms of additional stimulus. The number of people in America living in poverty has grown by eight million since May — though their financial woes often aren’t captured by credit and loan data because they’re out of the financial mainstream. And longer-term consequences like wage stagnation, reduced entrepreneurship and the accumulated cost of interest-bearing debt could linger for decades. But for now, households are weathering the turmoil largely because of the unusual nature of the current downturn. Read more.
In related news, consumers are spending money as if the coronavirus recession is over. But they are also paying down old debts and avoiding new ones in case the pandemic lasts a while, the Wall Street Journal reported. That is the discordant picture of the U.S. economy that emerged from third-quarter earnings reports from some of the country’s largest credit-card issuers. Capital One Financial Corp., Discover Financial Services DFS and Synchrony Financial SYF reported last week that, starting in September, the volume of purchases made by their customers increased from the relevant period a year earlier, a first since the coronavirus forced swaths of businesses to close their doors in March and a severe recession took hold. The buying continued well after laid-off workers stopped receiving $600 a week in extra unemployment benefits at the end of July. Although retail spending accelerated at the end of the third quarter, consumers still shied away from borrowing to finance everyday expenses and shopping binges. End-of-September credit-card balances at Capital One, Discover, Synchrony and American Express Co. were below their 2019 levels. Late-payment and defaults rates also decreased at those banks from prior quarters, even after programs that gave borrowers a reprieve on repayments ended, suggesting that consumers are willing and able to get out from under existing debt. Read more. (Subscription required.)
