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Retail Sales Up 1.7 Percent in October, Beating Expectations

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Retail sales jumped 1.7 percent in October, according to data released Tuesday by the Census Bureau, beating expectations and rising for the third straight month, The Hill reported. U.S. retailers, restaurants and bars made $638.2 billion in sales last month without adjusting for inflation, up from $627.5 billion in September. Analysts expected a 1.4 percent increase from September, which saw sales grow 0.8 percent from August, according to revised figures released yesterday. The surprisingly strong month of retail sales is a promising sign for the U.S. economy amid high inflation and plummeting consumer confidence. While the labor market, wage growth, stock market and consumer spending have all held steady this fall, a 30-year high in consumer price growth has strained household budgets and turned public opinion against President Biden’s handling of the economy. Even so, the persistence of strong retail sales growth shows a willingness among consumers to power through what economists expect to be a temporary surge in inflation.

Fed Officials Say High Inflation Weighing on Consumers and Needs to Be Controlled

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Federal Reserve officials said yesterday that they are vigilant of the ways that higher inflation can affect U.S. households and dampen consumer sentiment and want to get it under control, Reuters reported. While wages are rising for some workers, consumer sentiment is down to a "level that you might associate with a recession," said Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, citing the consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan. "I think that's very much because of the impact that prices have on people," including those who spend a significant part of their pay on food and gas, Barkin said during a virtual panel organized by the Fed. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the central bank aims for low inflation because it doesn't want households to stress about rising prices. "That's one of the reasons why, you know, I think you've heard from all of us concerns about the higher levels of inflation that we've seen recently and the need to get that back under control," Bostic said. The Fed this month began to reduce the pace of its monthly asset purchases, the first step in scaling back the support offered to the U.S. economy during the pandemic. Fed officials would like to wind down the bond purchases before they raise interest rates. Some policymakers say that the Fed should be prepared to act in case inflation lasts longer than expected. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, speaking earlier in the day, said the Fed should "tack in a more hawkish direction" over its next couple of meetings to be prepared in case inflation does not ease.

Here's Why Groceries Keep Getting More Expensive

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You've probably realized that shopping for food and household basics is more expensive these days. Expect to keep paying more for groceries in 2022, CNN Business reported. Prices shoppers paid for groceries climbed 1% in October from September and were 5.4% higher than at the same time last year, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Overall, prices, which also include things like rent, cars and energy, climbed 6.2% over the last 12 months, the largest increase since 1990. Within grocery, steaks have seen the highest price jump annually, costing 24.9% more in October than they did a year ago. Eggs were 11.6% more expensive in October than a year ago, chicken cost 8.8% more, cereal was 5% more expensive, and baby food prices grew 7.9% annually. Grocery prices stagnated from 2015 through 2019, but have increased during the pandemic. In 2020, grocery prices increased 3.7% from the year prior. Food manufacturers and grocers have faced higher costs for commodities, labor, transportation and other expenses during the pandemic. Those costs have escalated in recent months, leading manufacturers to pass off some of these costs to their retail customers, who in turn have passed on a portion to consumers.
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U.S. Consumer Prices Jump 6.2% in October, the Biggest Inflation Surge in More than 30 Years

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Inflation across a broad swath of products that consumers buy every day was even worse than expected in October, hitting its highest point in more than 30 years, the Labor Department reported, according to CNBC. The consumer price index, which is a basket of products ranging from gasoline and health care to groceries and rents, rose 6.2% from a year ago, the most since December 1990, and outpaced the 5.9% Dow Jones estimate. On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.9% against the 0.6% estimate. Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, so-called core CPI was up 0.6% against the estimate of 0.4%. Annual core inflation ran at a 4.6% pace, compared with the 4% expectation and the highest since August 1991. Fuel oil prices soared 12.3% for the month, part of a 59.1% increase over the past year. Energy prices overall rose 4.8% in October and are up 30% for the 12-month period. Used vehicle prices again were a big contributor, rising 2.5% on the month and 26.4% for the year. New vehicle prices were up 1.4% and 9.8%, respectively. Food prices also showed a sizable bounce, up 0.9% and 5.3% respectively. Within the food category, meat, poultry, fish and eggs collectively rose 1.7% for the month and 11.9% year over year. The price increases meant that workers fell further behind.
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Americans Have Never Been in So Much Debt

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American households are carrying record amounts of debt as home and auto prices surge, COVID infections continue to fall and people get out their credit cards again, CNN Business reported. Between July and September, U.S. household debt climbed to a new record of $15.24 trillion, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said. It was an increase of 1.9%, or $286 billion, from the second quarter of the year. "As pandemic relief efforts wind down, we are beginning to see the reversal of some of the credit card balance trends seen during the pandemic," such as lower spending in favor of paying down debt balances. Now that the stimulus sugar rush has worn off, consumers are going back to their old ways of spending with their credit cards. Credit card balances rose by $17 billion, just as they had during the second quarter. But they're still $123 billion lower than at the end of 2019 before the pandemic hit. Mortgages, which are the largest component of household debt, rose by $230 billion last quarter and totaled $10.67 trillion. Auto loans and student loan balances also increased, rising by $28 billion and $14 billion, respectively. Even though credit card debt has yet to get back to its pre-pandemic level, total debt is already $1.1 trillion higher than at the end of 2019.
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IRS Announces Inflation Adjustments for Standard Deduction, Tax Brackets

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The IRS announced inflation adjustments for 2022 pertaining to a host of features in the tax code, including the standard deduction and tax brackets, The Hill reported. The changes take into account the fact that inflation has increased this year. The inflation adjustments apply to the 2022 tax year, which households will file tax returns for in 2023. The standard deduction, which is claimed by the vast majority of taxpayers, will increase by $800 for married couples filing jointly, going from $25,100 for 2021 to $25,900 for 2022. For single filers, the standard deduction will rise by $400, from $12,550 to $12,950, the IRS said. The income thresholds for each tax bracket will also increase for 2022. The top individual income tax rate of 37 percent will apply for that year to income above $647,850 for married couples and to income above $539,900 for single filers. Those thresholds are up from $628,300 for married couples and $523,600 for single filers for 2021. The IRS releases inflation adjustments for tax provisions on an annual basis. The adjustments are based on average inflation for the 12-month period ending in August and are not directly related to the inflation data that the Labor Department releases. The IRS bases its adjustments on a slightly different measure of inflation than the one that is most commonly reported. Still, the IRS adjustments reflect the past year's higher inflation rate. For example, the $800 increase in the standard deduction for married couples from 2021 to 2022 was $500 higher than the increase from 2020 to 2021, which was $300.

U.S. Households Face Biggest Surge in Electricity Costs Since 2009

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U.S. consumers faced the biggest jump in their energy bills in more than a decade last month, with costs soaring for electricity, natural gas and fuel oil as cooler weather approaches, Bloomberg News reported. The price of electricity in October increased 6.5% from the same month a year ago while consumer expenses paid to utilities for gas went up 28%, according to numbers released Wednesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Fuel oil rose 59%, and costs for propane, kerosene and firewood jumped by about 35%, the data show. That increase in electricity costs was the most since March 2009 and the jump in utility-piped gas service the biggest since August 2008, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, which uses the labor statistics data for historical comparisons. October’s increases are another sign of higher heating bills to come for U.S. households as winter approaches. U.S. prices for natural gas and oil are trading close to multi-year highs amid a global squeeze on supplies and labor shortages at U.S. coal mines adding to woes. This winter will be the costliest since at least 2014-2015 for households using gas, heating oil or electricity, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
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Banks Ease Credit Rules, Demand Grows as U.S. Economy Motors Ahead: Fed Survey

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Banks largely eased credit standards for businesses, commercial real estate investors and households in the third quarter of the year, as the U.S. economy weathered the latest wave of the coronavirus pandemic, a Federal Reserve survey reported on Monday, Reuters reported. The Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey, offering evidence of continued momentum for the economy, said banks "generally reported having eased standards" for business loans by lowering rates, expanding credit lines or imposing less restrictive terms. The banks "cited a more favorable or less uncertain economic outlook" as well as more competition among lenders and "an increased tolerance for risk" amid general improvement in markets and the economic outlook, the Fed reported. Demand for loans was also up, particularly among middle-sized and larger firms. Looser standards and higher demand also were reported for commercial real estate lending. Banks in general also eased standards for consumer credit card and auto loans by lowering credit score requirements or increasing credit limits.