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BofA: The End of the Student-Loan Payment Pause Could Increase ‘Serious Delinquencies’ on Other Household Debt

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The return of student loan payments could lead to borrowers not paying back debt as their expenses mount, according to Bank of America, MarketWatch.com reported. While consumers have been paying their debt back and delinquencies are “subdued for now,” they’re rising, the bank wrote in a note this week. A rising number of people have been more than 30 days late on their auto loans and credit-card debt, BofA noted, and the share of people who are seriously delinquent on loans, or more than 90 days late on their debt, has risen above pre-pandemic levels. If student loan payments resume in full, “we estimate that serious delinquencies could rise by about 67% over time,” BofA stated, “with risks of knock-on effects to other forms of household debt as well.” The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau estimated that more than 1 in 13 student loan debtors are currently behind on their other payment obligations. For borrowers, not paying back student loans would have serious implications for their overall finances: Missing a student loan payment could result in a big negative impact on their credit score. For a borrower who has a credit score between 350 to 850 — which is a large range — missing a student loan payment could cause their score to drop by 49 to 82 points on average, VantageScore estimated.

Eviction Filings Soar Above Pre-Pandemic Levels in Some Cities

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Rising rental costs nationwide pushed up eviction filings far above pre-pandemic levels in parts of the country after COVID-19 protections ended, according to recent data, The Hill reported. Princeton University’s Eviction Lab, which tracks evictions in 34 cities and 10 states nationwide, found that in some cities, eviction filings are up by 50 percent or more from pre-pandemic figures. Landlords nationwide file around 3.6 million eviction cases annually. Eviction filings soared in Minneapolis/St. Paul in May, with filings reaching more than 56 percent above the average recorded before the pandemic. In March, filings were up by 106 percent from the average. And in Houston, filings in May were 50 percent greater than their pre-pandemic levels.

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More Americans Are Getting Auto Loans That Exceed the Worth of Their Cars

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More Americans are entering into auto loans that exceed the worth of their cars after vehicle values declined in the wake of dramatic increases during the pandemic, a report has found, Bloomberg News reported. Used car loan-to-value ratios increased to 125 in the first three months of this year from 104 for the same period in 2021, according to the study released Tuesday by credit reporting firm TransUnion and market researcher J.D. Power. A ratio of 125 means that the borrower’s loan is worth 125% of the vehicle’s value. The loan-to-value ratios, or LTVs, could be foreshadowing higher delinquencies ahead, the study found. Negative equity, or the amount that debt exceeds a vehicle’s value, has ballooned in recent years, with some consumers stepping into car dealerships $10,000 underwater. “As vehicle prices have risen and overall inflation remains elevated, consumers are increasingly starting in higher than average LTV positions to afford used vehicles,” Satyan Merchant, a senior vice president at TransUnion, and its auto business lead, said in a statement.

Student-Loan Repayments Are Coming Back. Retailers Are in for a Big Shock.

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The government’s pandemic-era pause on student-debt payments allowed millions of Americans to forget about a big monthly bill for more than three years. Now some Americans face a serious reckoning—and so do the places where they spend their money, the Wall Street Journal reported. Around 43 million people in the U.S., some 17% of the adult population, have federal student debt. Out of those borrowers, roughly 26.6 million—or about 10% of the adult population—had loans in forbearance as of the first quarter, according to the National Student Loan Data System. This was thanks to the federal government’s suspension of payments and interest accrual starting in March 2020. That pause is ending Aug. 30, as part of the bipartisan debt-ceiling deal signed in early June. While the Biden administration’s student-loan forgiveness program would have shaved off a big portion of that debt, it has a slim chance of surviving a Supreme Court challenge. The administration is said to be weighing a grace period during which borrowers who miss payments won’t be referred to delinquency, as the Wall Street Journal reported. That would delay the eventual impact of the resumption of student-loan payments by about three months to a year. The hit to household cash flows as a result of the resumption could be substantial: Bank of America Institute estimates it might be around $180 a month for the median impacted household. In a 2017 survey conducted by the Federal Reserve, the median monthly student-loan payment was $222 and the average was $393. Estimates vary, but even on conservative expectations, borrowers are set to collectively resume paying $5 billion to $8 billion a month once the pause is lifted.

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