TREND OF LARGE RETAIL LIQUIDATIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE, ACCORDING TO ANALYSIS IN OCTOBER ABI JOURNAL ARTICLE
Analysis Finds More than BAPCPA Responsible
October 19, 2016, Alexandria, Va. — The trend of liquidation, rather than reorganization, for large retail debtors is likely to continue, according to an article in the October ABI Journal. “It has become an accepted storyline that troubled retail chains, more than other industry sectors, face an uphill battle to successfully reorganize absent a near-consensual RSA or plan among key creditor classes upon a chapter 11 filing and/or an accelerated auction process,” Chuck Carroll and John Yozzo of FTI Consulting, Inc. write in their article “Why Are U.S. Retail Reorganizations So Hard?”
Carroll and Yozzo write that those who believe this theme tend to pin the blame on key provisions of the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005 (BAPCPA) that favor the interests of certain creditors over a debtor, especially so when the debtor is a retailer, and thus makes reorganization less likely. To see if this was the case, the authors examined S&P Capital IQ's bankruptcy database for chapter 11 filings that occurred between Jan 1, 2000, and June 30, 2016, where a debtor had at least $100 million in debt or assets at the time of filing to measure the degree to which failed retailers liquidate more frequently than other filers. They also sought to ascertain whether BAPCPA has impacted this trend, and analyzed pre-filing quantitative distinctions between debtors that liquidated and those that reorganized.
“This analysis produced unambiguous findings: The proportion of retail debtors that liquidate is indeed far greater than the proportion of non-retailer debtors, but, perhaps surprisingly, this proportion has not changed appreciably since BAPCPA's effective date — for neither retailers nor non retailers,” Carroll and Yozzo write. However, the authors warn that this trend may not be the case for struggling small retailers, which might have been experiencing “greater liquidation rates than large chains since the passage of BAPCPA, as they may not have possessed the club with landlords or trade creditors to avoid liquidations.”
With their research dispelling BAPCPA as a primary reason for the disappearance of retailers, Carroll and Yozzo uncovered other factors that have led to large retail liquidations:
· Liquidation values for failed retailers have improved markedly over the last decade or so, making it harder for opportunistic going-concern buyers to prevail in an auction process.
· Bids from liquidators often guarantee that a debtor will nearly or fully recover the cost value of its inventory.
· Lease obligations also present a daunting challenge for retailers hoping to reorganize, as they typically represent sizeable financial commitments that cannot be expunged in bankruptcy in the same manner that funded debt often is.
· Debtor-in-possession lenders to retailers in chapter 11 are providing shorter time frames, less new money and more aggressive event milestones in their financing agreements than they did in the pre-recession era.
“Unfortunately, the harsh reality that the American retail landscape is overstored seems to have finally set in as the online channel continues to take sales and market shares from traditional stores,” Carroll and Yozzo write.
To obtain a copy of “Why Are U.S. Retail Reorganizations So Hard?” from the October edition of the ABI Journal, please contact ABI Public Affairs Manager John Hartgen at 703-894-5935 or jhartgen@abiworld.org.
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