Office prices in the U.S. are due for a crash, and the commercial real estate market faces at least another nine months of declines, according to Bloomberg’s latest Markets Live Pulse survey. About two-thirds of the 919 respondents surveyed by Bloomberg believe that the U.S. office market will only rebound after a severe collapse. An even greater majority says that U.S. commercial real estate prices won’t hit bottom until the second half of 2024 or later. That’s bad news for the $1.5 trillion of commercial real estate debt that according to Morgan Stanley is due before the end of 2025. Refinancing it won’t be easy, particularly the roughly 25% of commercial property that is office buildings. A Green Street index of commercial property prices has already fallen 16% from its peak in March 2022.
