Why Some Fear Government Data on the U.S. Economy Is Losing Integrity
U.S. policymakers are increasingly anxious about the integrity of certain government benchmarks, the crucial data points that help the Federal Reserve assess the economy’s health and guide interest rate decisions, the Washington Post reported. The problems have led staff at certain agencies to rely more on statistical estimates than hard data, potentially fueling volatility in benchmarks, particularly for inflation readings from the Labor Department. Falling response rates to government surveys, coupled with pandemic-driven seasonal quirks and longstanding budget strains, have made it harder to collect and analyze reliable data. Agencies have also shed staff through early retirements, deferred resignations and normal attrition. Any erosion in the integrity of government data could complicate policymakers’ view of the economy, which is undergoing major policy changes from across-the-board tariff increases to strains in the labor market due to a loss of immigrants. Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell warned lawmakers he didn’t want to see a decline in U.S. gold-standard statistics. The Trump administration is also pushing to overhaul major benchmarks it calls flawed. In March, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick called for a change in the way economic growth is measured, though that idea has yet to move forward. At the same time, the president’s budget for the fiscal year that begins Oct. 1 proposes slashing the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ roughly $700 million budget by about 8 percent, a cut economists warn could further hobble the agency. Read more.​​​​​

8 Million Federal Student Loan Borrowers Will Soon See Interest Restart​​​

The U.S. Education Department said on Wednesday that it would resume applying interest on Aug. 1 to federal student loans held by nearly eight million borrowers in the Biden-era repayment plan known as SAVE, which has been in limbo after being halted by legal challenges, the New York Times reported. The shift is likely to take borrowers by surprise, giving them just weeks to consider their options at a time when loan servicers face significant backlogs in processing repayment plan applications. The entire student loan landscape is about to undergo even more upheaval — the domestic policy bill signed into law last week created new repayment options that will take effect next year. SAVE borrowers’ payments have been on hold since last summer, and they will remain paused for now. But the Education Department is encouraging enrollees to move into another repayment plan. The Saving on a Valuable Education plan, an income-driven repayment program that ties borrowers’ monthly payment amounts to their income, was a centerpiece of former President Joe Biden’s agenda, and it was more generous than its predecessor plans. Because of its cost, two groups of Republican-led states challenged it in federal court in the spring of 2024, arguing that the Biden administration had overstepped its authority in developing the plan. It was blocked while the litigation worked its way through the courts, miring borrowers in uncertainty. Read more.​​​​​​

Analysis: Health Insurers Are Becoming Chronically Uninvestable​​​

Health insurance has never been a flashy, high-growth business. But for many years it offered something nearly as good: steady, dependable returns, fueled by the expansion of government programs such as Medicare, Medicaid and the Obamacare exchanges, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis. Lately, though, Wall Street has a problem with America’s health insurers: They keep missing their numbers. What began as trouble in Medicare Advantage has now spread across nearly all government-backed plans, signaling deeper issues in the model itself. After a rough 2024, insurers are warning that 2025 won’t be better. The trouble started when industry giant UnitedHealth Group ousted its chief executive and withdrew its outlook in May, blaming higher costs in Medicare Advantage. Then, earlier this month, Centene pulled its guidance, citing a sicker-than-expected population on plans under the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare. And this week, Molina Healthcare cut its profit forecast, citing cost pressure across all its government plans, including Medicaid. The trouble has sent shares of insurance companies plunging. This also comes as the recently passed tax-and-spending package is set to cut more than $1 trillion in health care spending over a decade. Some might see an opportunity to buy the dip. But value can only be measured if you can trust company numbers — and increasingly, investors can’t, according to the analysis. Read more.​​​​​​

U.S. Housing Shortage Has Grown to Record 4.7M Units, Zillow Says

The U.S. housing shortage recently grew to a record 4.7 million homes, fueling an affordable housing crisis that’s pricing families out of the American dream, according to a new Zillow analysis, The Hill reported. The real estate website examined the latest census data and found the nation’s housing deficit grew by 159,000 homes in 2023 despite a homebuilding surge over the past five years. While that’s less than the housing deficit increased in 2022, when it rose by 257,000 homes, the growth shows the pandemic construction boom hasn’t been enough to narrow the gap. “The unfortunate fact is that we still don’t have enough housing in this country for people who need it,” Orphe Divounguy, senior economist at Zillow, said in the report. The shortage is driving an affordability crisis that is pushing millions of families to double up and live with nonrelatives. In 2023, 3.4 million homes sat vacant and available for rent or sale, while 8.1 million families shared their homes with unrelated individuals, Zillow determined. The 4.7 million-unit gap is what the company defines as the housing deficit. More recent data shows the number of homes for sale has ticked up this year, but elevated mortgage rates and high prices mean affordability remains a challenge. Read more.​​​​​​

U.S. Jobless Claims Fell Last Week

The number of Americans who newly filed for unemployment benefits declined last week, the Labor Department said Thursday, although the report suggested that the size of the unemployed population continued to grow in June, the Wall Street Journal reported. In the week through July 5, unemployment filings fell to 227,000, from a revised 232,000 a week earlier. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had been forecasting 235,000 claims. Continuing claims, an indicator of the size of the total unemployed population, came in at 1.97 million in the week through June 28, compared with 1.96 million a week earlier. That is the highest level since November 2021, and a sign that relatively slow hiring is making it harder for people out of work to find new jobs. The continuing-claims data lag the initial-claims data by a week. Economists have been tracking the weekly figures for an up-to-date look at a labor market that many fear is gradually weakening. So far this year, however, the claims data have reflected softer hiring but no serious surge in layoffs. Read more.​​​​​​

ABI’s New Website Has Launched: Thank You for Your Patience!​​​

ABI unveiled a completely redesigned website on July 7. The revamped website — combined with a simultaneous conversion to a new customer relationship management platform — requires all ABI members to create a new password to access the member portion of the website, including their member profile. Members received an email on July 7 with a link and instructions about how to change their password. Members can use their email and that new password to log into the new website. Click here for more information.

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Nomination Deadline Is Tuesday for the 2025 Judge William L. Norton Jr. Judicial Excellence Award!​​​
Do you know a bankruptcy judge who has also been an outstanding educator, writer or scholar? Nominate that judge for the 2025 Judge William L. Norton Jr. Judicial Excellence Award, presented annually by ABI and Thomson Reuters. Named for former bankruptcy judge and longtime author William L. Norton Jr., the award — which includes a $5,000 Thomson Reuters donation in the recipient’s name to the ABI Endowment for Education — will be presented in September at the annual meeting of the National Conference of Bankruptcy Judges. The deadline for 2025 nominations is July 15, 2025. For nomination forms, please
contact arin.berkson@thomsonreuters.com.

Access All Current ABI Titles Through ABI’s New Digital Book Subscription!​​​

One of the best collections of bankruptcy books is now available as an annual digital subscription! ABI’s bankruptcy library opens the door to a constantly evolving area of the law, and our books are continually being updated by top industry professionals. Auto-renewing annual subscriptions guarantee immediate access to this invaluable resource, which is comprised of fully searchable content that’s always available on any digital device. Convenient pricing plans for individual and institutional subscribers offer immediate and unlimited access to our entire digital library of books — nearly 100 treatises! Plus, you get advanced access to new and revised books as soon as they are published — all included in your annual subscription. Learn more!

Nomination Deadline Is Aug. 22 for ABI's International Matter of the Year Award​​​

ABI’s International Committee is accepting nominations for its Fourth Annual ABI International Matter of the Year Award. For criteria, eligibility and other information on the award, please click here.​​​​​​

New on ABI’s Bankruptcy Blog Exchange: Bestwall Explores the Limits of Federal Courts’ Bankruptcy Jurisdiction with Novel Arguments
What does it mean to be “bankrupt?” The Fourth Circuit recently held oral arguments to determine this question in Bestwall, LLC v. The Official Committee of Asbestos Claimants, according to a recent blog post. There, the asbestos claimants asserted that the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of North Carolina lacks jurisdiction over Bestwall, because Bestwall is not “bankrupt” as defined by the U.S. Constitution.

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