Close to half a million low-income homeowners in the United States, many of them minorities, are nearing the end of mortgage forbearance plans that allowed them to halt loan payments during the COVID-19 pandemic, presenting a test for the mortgage service firms tasked with helping struggling borrowers move onto payment plans they can afford, Reuters reported. The number of borrowers exiting the plans is expected to surge over coming weeks as people who signed up early on in the pandemic reach the 18-month limit for forbearance. While close to 80% of homeowners who entered programs at some point inthe pandemic have since exited them, the remaining 20% tend to live in areas with higher shares of minorities, or have lower credit scores and lower incomes, research shows. Their missed payments could add up to a "forbearance overhang" of more than $15 billion in postponed mortgage payments, or about $14,200 per person, according to Brookings Institution research. "When coupled with unemployment insurance expiring and other things happening at the same time, it’s not clear that these folks will have an easy time coming out of this," said Amit Seru, a professor at Stanford Graduate School of Business and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. Many borrowers will be able to push missed payments to the end of their loans, and others will be able to capitalize on a hot housing market to refinance or even sell their homes. Homeowners facing hardships who signed up for forbearance in later months may still be eligible for additional extensions. The pandemic worsened racial disparities among homeowners. Black and Hispanic homeowners, disproportionately affected by pandemic-related job losses, were 30% more likely to fall behind on mortgages than the average borrower in the early months of the crisis, between April and November of 2020, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Some 7.6 million borrowers have been in forbearance at some point during the pandemic, representing about 15% of all mortgage holders, and about 1.25 million borrowers were still in forbearance plans in mid-October, according to Black Knight, a mortgage technology and data provider. It estimates that about 850,000 homeowners who participated in forbearance were in plans set to expire by the end of this year, including those who already exhausted their options. Roughly half of those homeowners have loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration or the Department of Veterans Affairs.
