The U.S. government spent at least $5.2 trillion to combat the COVID-19 crisis. It stands as one of the most expensive, ambitious experiments in U.S. history, according to a Washington Post commentary. A final phase of that assistance could begin this week, when the Treasury Department begins a $110 billion program of child tax credit payments for millions of Americans. Those benefits are set to run through the end of the year. But even that program runs out, assuming it is not renewed. And policymakers will be undertaking an equally uncertain experiment by letting most other COVID-19 relief aid run its course. Businesses and households that were able to navigate the pandemic with large levels of government aid will soon test their ability to forge ahead on their own. Previous attempts to let pandemic-related benefits expire were met with last-minute extensions, as economic updates remained dismal and hardship remained prominent. But the White House appears ready to let the training wheels come off this year as positive indicators pile up. GDP numbers released later this month will likely show the economy has already recovered from its pandemic losses. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office expects it to grow at a searing 7.4 percent pace in 2021, and a still-respectable 3.1 percent in 2022, adjusted for inflation, which would be the strongest two-year growth spurt the U.S. has put together in 37 years. But the post pandemic boom, fueled by pent-up demand for services, trillions in extra savings and trillions more in government aid, will fade. CBO now projects growth will slow to 1.1 percent in 2023 and an average of 1.2 percent in 2024 and 2025 — the slowest sustained growth the U.S. has seen outside of a recession, according to Commerce Department data going back to 1929. Before the pandemic, the CBO projected steady growth of between 1.6 and 1.8 percent, rather than a dramatic boom and a leveling off.
