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Analysis: Push to End Pandemic Benefits May Not be Panacea for U.S. Labor Shortage

Submitted by jhartgen@abi.org on

The 25 U.S. states calling an early halt to pandemic-related federal unemployment benefits have recovered more of the jobs lost during the crisis than other states, possibly limiting how much of a dent ending the weekly $300 payments will make in the national battle to fill record job vacancies, Reuters reported. Republicans have taken aim at the enhanced benefits, which were first approved by Congress in a massive relief package last year and later extended, arguing they discourage people from returning to work and are no longer needed given the easing pandemic. Four Republican-led states are ending the payments as of Saturday, with 21 others following suit through early July. "Business owners ... are struggling not because of COVID-19 but because of labor shortages resulting from these excessive federal unemployment programs," Missouri Governor Mike Parson said last month as he announced a June 12 cut-off to the payments in his state. Payments to sole proprietors and contractors typically not eligible for unemployment insurance also will end. But in Missouri, as in the other states pulling the plug early on the benefits, the margin to boost local labor supply may be thinning. The state already has clawed back about 90% of the jobs it lost last year as the spread of the coronavirus devastated the U.S. economy. As of April, when its payroll jobs topped 2.94 million, there were only 16,000 more unemployed Missourians than before the pandemic, and about 93,000 collecting pandemic unemployment benefits. That pool includes solo contractors and gig workers on benefits for the first time during the crisis, and it is unclear how many will shift to conventional payroll jobs or resume old ones. Overall, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data for April, the latest available, showed the 25 states planning to cancel benefits early have recovered about 80% of the jobs they lost during the crisis, versus a 66% recovery rate in the rest of the nation.

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