Fourteen months after the pandemic triggered a national emergency, the final chapter of the U.S. economic recovery may begin this month, with rapid changes starting with the end of enhanced unemployment benefits in half the states and ending in the fall's expected reopening of schools and universities, Reuters reported. Along the way, Major League Baseball stadiums are slated to return to full capacity, and the largest state economy, California, on June 15 will shed its final COVID-era restrictions and give bars, restaurants and other businesses a green light on the road to normal. That same day in Washington, D.C., the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to open debate about when and how to cut the economy loose from its crisis-fighting monetary policy and shift to managing what is hoped to be a long economic expansion. Since coronavirus vaccines rolled out in December, forecasts have pointed to record-breaking numbers this year, including the fastest annual gross domestic product growth in nearly 40 years. Companies in May added 559,000 jobs, but the total number remains 7.6 million short of early 2020. About 3.6 million more people are unemployed, and the labor force is 3.5 million smaller. Shortages of supplies, workers and raw materials have crimped the recovery with businesses curtailing hours, turning away customers, or delaying filling orders. The Fed's most recent national economic snapshot referenced shortages 44 times, compared with 17 in January and three a year ago. Economists expect that to ease. The pandemic put the economy into what some likened to an induced coma. Shaking off the stupor takes time, and is complicated by some of the programs used to cushion the economy's sharp drop last spring. Stimulus payments and low interest rates, for example, fueled a boom in home sales that spilled into home construction and lumber prices. Yet the costs for wood and some other commodities already have begun easing: lumber futures are down 24% from their peak, with copper and aluminum falling around 5%. Likewise, the splurge on automobiles, appliances and other goods will likely prove a one-time affair; even if demand remains strong, supply will likely catch up.
