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Global Oil Demand Will Not Recover Until Well into 2021, Even with a COVID-19 Vaccine

Submitted by ckanon@abi.org on

Global oil demand is going to fall more sharply than previously expected and a vaccine is unlikely to significantly boost consumption until well into next year, the International Energy Agency said and Business Insider reported. U.S. drugmaker Pfizer said on Monday that trials of its COVID-19 vaccine had yielded promising results. This triggered a surge in global financial markets, in particular, in the price of oil, which has gained 11 percent this week to trade around its highest since August. But the IEA, which advises Western governments on energy policy, said this development meant little for near-term expectations for crude oil demand. This is particularly true given the surge in cases of COVID-19 across the U.S. and Europe. The Paris-based IEA cut its demand growth forecast by 400,000 barrels per day to a decline of 8.8 million barrels per day this year, compared with its forecast in last month's market report. Consumption will pick up more quickly than the IEA believed a month ago, but only at a modest pace. The IEA expects oil demand to rise by 5.8 million barrels per day in 2021, compared with a predicted increase of 5.5 million barrels per day in its report last month.