The COVID-19 pandemic spawned predictions that stay-at-home orders would eventually deliver a baby bump, yet far from having more children than usual, Americans are expecting fewer, Bloomberg reported. In bedrooms across the U.S., couples are making decisions that, in the aggregate, could prove as consequential for the long-term health of the economy as those taken by policymakers in Washington. Fewer children now means fewer consumers, workers and taxpayers in the future. In other words, a smaller economy than otherwise — though also a smaller environmental footprint, which brings its own rewards. Unromantic as it sounds, planning a family is a numbers exercise that factors in the age of the would-be mother, access to affordable child care, college costs, income, and job security. Toss in a national health emergency and an economic crisis that invites comparisons to the Great Depression, and the benefits of parenthood no longer pencil out for many. The Guttmacher Institute surveyed about 2,000 American women in late April and early May and found that 34% wanted to delay pregnancy or have fewer children as a result of the pandemic. That outweighed the 17% who said they wanted children sooner or more of them. In June, the Brookings Institution released a study predicting the U.S. is headed for “a large, lasting baby bust.” Its researchers forecast there will be 300,000 to 500,000 fewer children born in the U.S. in 2021 than there would have been absent the crisis, which amounts to a decrease of roughly 10% from 2019. That means the number of babies never born is likely to greatly exceed the number of Americans who’ve died from coronavirus, which is approaching 150,000. The effect on population will be longer-lasting as well: Many of the babies who aren’t being born would have lived into the 22nd century.
