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Commentary: Our Next Stimulus Deal Could Cause a Massive Stock Market Crash

Submitted by ckanon@abi.org on
When COVID-19 first took hold back in March, the stock market reacted almost instantly, plunging into bear market territory for the first time in over a decade, The Motley Fool reported. But stock values have recovered nicely since then, to the point where you almost wouldn't think we're in a recession. When we look at factors like unemployment, however, the numbers tell a very different story. In fact, it's because of rampant joblessness, among other economic factors, that lawmakers are currently in the process of debating a second stimulus package. In March, the CARES Act was passed to provide COVID-19 relief, and it included a number of key provisions, including boosted unemployment and direct $1,200 stimulus payments to eligible Americans. But boosted unemployment is set to expire at the end of July, and many of those who received their stimulus cash earlier in the year have spent it. As such, Americans are desperate for added relief, and if it doesn't come through in a generous-enough fashion, it could drive the stock market into another plunge. If you were to look at the stock market's performance alone over the past few months, you almost wouldn't know that the country is grappling with a widespread financial crisis. But investors shouldn't assume stock values will stay high forever. As we saw back in March, bad news on the COVID-19 front could easily cause stocks to plummet, and if a follow-up stimulus deal is overwhelmingly disappointing, the market could react similarly. What would a disappointing stimulus deal entail? For the millions of jobless Americans, it means no unemployment boost or a boost that's far less substantial than the extra $600 a week jobless folks have been getting over the past few months.