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U.S. Job Growth Seen Slowing in December After Robust Gains

Submitted by jcarman@abi.org on

U.S. job growth likely slowed in December, but the pace of hiring probably remains more than enough to keep the longest economic expansion in history on track despite a deepening downturn in a manufacturing sector stung by trade disputes, Reuters reported. The Labor Department’s closely watched monthly employment report on Friday could buttress the Federal Reserve’s assessment that both the economy and monetary policy are in a “good place.” It would extend the run of upbeat data such as consumer spending, trade and housing that have suggested the expansion, now in its 11th year, is not in immediate danger of being derailed by a recession. Worries that a downturn might be triggered by the Trump administration’s trade war with China spurred the Fed to cut interest rates three times in 2019. Indeed economic growth did slow last year, throttling back to 2.1 percent in the third quarter from 2018’s pace of nearly 3 percent. With a Phase 1 deal with China set to be signed next week, policymakers are now more confident in the outlook and last month signaled borrowing costs could remain unchanged at least through this year. Economists are pegging growth at the end of last year around a 2.3 percent rate. Some of the anticipated slowdown in December is attributed to seasonal volatility associated with a later-than-normal Thanksgiving Day.

 

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