Global growth is slowing and the world economy is headed for a recession in 2019 unless something happens to give it renewed momentum, Reuters reported. The OECD's composite leading indicator fell to just 99.3 points in November, its lowest since October 2012, and down from a peak of 100.5 at the end of 2017. Growth momentum has been easing for some time in Britain, Canada, France and Italy and there were tentative signs of slackening momentum in the U.S. and Germany in November. The composite indicator is likely to fall even further when data for December are published next month, given the weakness already revealed in equity markets and business surveys. The OECD composite leading indicator has been weakening consistently for the last year and now points unambiguously to a contraction ahead. In the last 50 years, whenever the index has fallen below 99.3, there has almost always been a recession in the U.S. (1970, 1974, 1980, 1981, 1990, 2001 and 2008). The one exception was the weakening of the index in 1998, when the U.S. continued to grow, despite the weakening global economy in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis. Even in this case, however, the interest-rate setting Federal Open Market Committee noted "the economy has been holding up but is now showing clear signs of deterioration." Most of the world's major economies outside the U.S. showed clear signs of slackening growth in the fourth quarter of 2018. Global trade volumes showed signs of slowing towards the end of 2018 after strong growth in 2017. Most economists now forecast a period of slower growth in 2019 but policymakers have expressed hope for a soft landing rather than an outright recession.
